JPY Intraday Comment: Foreign Exchange - Global

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment: Foreign Exchange - Global

Global Markets Research

15 June 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsJPY may benefit if Middle East tensions ease

Global FX Strategyfurther and global inflation pressures fade

Yujiro Goto - NSC

US-Iran agreement causes oil prices to ease and weakens USD; JPY yujiro.goto@nomura.com

short positions leave room for further recovery in JPY +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• A US-Iran agreement has caused oil prices to ease with renewed USD weakness, and yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

downward pressure on USD is likely to continue in the near term, though the durability +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

of the deal still needs to be confirmed.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC • If the Middle East situation improves and oil prices fall further this could lower inflation tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

expectations in major economies, which may reduce the recent hawkish tilt among +81 3 6703 1427

central banks. Central banks are unlikely to shift their stances immediately, but if

Yuki Kodera - NSC inflation pressures clearly fade, the urgency for further rate hikes may diminish. yuki.kodera@nomura.com

• In FX markets, this could support a partial reversal of recent moves. JPY, in particular, +81 3 6703 1281

may strengthen further if the BOJ continues to signal rate hikes and the Japanese

authorities become more comfortable with a tighter policy, while a global cooling in

rate-hike expectations could add to JPY appreciation pressures.

Fig. 1: CFTC positionings for USD Fig. 2: Changes in global rate markets since end-February

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura

Source: Macrobond, Nomura

USD appreciation pressures ease on US-Iran agreement

In the early hours of Monday, President Trump posted on social media that the “deal with