US-Iran deal: A welcome relief for Asia

Research evidence excerpt

US-Iran deal: A welcome relief for Asia

Global Markets Research

15 June 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

US-Iran deal: A welcome relief for Asia Asia Economics

Sonal Varma - NSL

AI-boom and energy cost relief should position Asia for better performance. sonal.varma@nomura.com

Thailand, Philippines, India, Korea stand to gain the most from lower oil prices.

Ting Lu - NIHK

ting.lu@nomura.com

• Positive for Asia: The US-Iran peace deal is positive for Asia’s net energy importing

Euben Paracuelles - NSL economies through lower inflation (0.2-0.3pp for every 10% oil drop), improved current

euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

accounts (~0.3% of GDP) and modest growth/fiscal benefits. Combined with strong AI-

Aurodeep Nandi - NFASL demand, this should position Asia for better performance. However, the macro

aurodeep.nandi@nomura.com benefits will likely be visible with a lag, as supply chain normalization will likely be

gradual. Jeong Woo Park - NSL

jeongwoo.park@nomura.com

• Key winners: Thailand, Philippines, India and South Korea stand to gain the most – Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

Thailand via a lower import bill and inflation; Philippines through faster decline in siying.toh@nomura.com

inflation; India from reduced import costs and South Korea via a wider CA surplus.

Jing Wang - NIHK

• Differentiation within Asia is still critical: While broadly positive, we remain jing.wang@nomura.com

cautious on Indonesia owing to policy uncertainty, while India might enjoy a ‘double Harrington Zhang - NIHK

bonanza’ from lower oil prices and the recent FCNR(B) measure, which should further harrington.zhang@nomura.com

boost the BOP surplus in Q3. Nabila Amani - NSL

• Central bank divergence persists: Lower oil prices will reduce hawkish pressure nabila.amani@nomura.com