Rumo: Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jun.15): Rising Soybean and Corn Input Costs

Research evidence excerpt

Rumo: Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jun.15): Rising Soybean and Corn Input Costs

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

15 June 2026

Rumo Neutral

RAIL3.SA, RAIL3 BZ

Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Jun. 15): Rising Price (15 Jun 26):R$13.27

Soybean and Corn Input Costs

Latin American Transportation

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) released its weekly report, providing Guilherme Mendes AC

updates on the progress of the soybean and corn harvests as well as truck spot freight (55-11) 4950-4105

prices. guilherme.g.mendes@jpmorgan.com

Julia Orsi

• IMEA: Soybean. Soybean commercialization for the 2025/26 season reached (55-11) 4950 3351

81% (+8.5 p.p. m/m) , while the 2026/27 harvest advanced to 18.5% as of June julia.orsi@jpmorgan.com

(+5.0 p.p. m/m and 4.3 p.p. above last season). Production estimates for the Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

2026/27 crop were maintained at 48.9 million tons (-5% y/y), with a cautious

outlook driven by climate uncertainties and tighter rural credit limiting farmer

investments in technology packages. Moreover, production costs are expected

to rise 3.2%, driven by higher fertilizer (+5% y/y) and pesticide (+11% y/y)

expenses, pushing the break-even point up 9% and keeping profit margins

under pressure as producers focus on acquiring remaining inputs and managing

forward sales strategies. Mato Grosso's soybean crushing hit a monthly record

of 1.3 million tons in May (+7% m/m and +3% y/y), with derivative exports

surging 42% driven by strong external demand for soybean oil and biodiesel,

though crushing margins fell 7.8% m/m on higher bean costs. Soybean prices

fell 2.2% w/w at the CME Group on favorable U.S. Midwest weather, while the

USD strengthened 1.9% on Middle East risk aversion, lifting Mato Grosso soy

prices 0.6% to R$ 105.8/bag.