US Franchise Auto Dealerships: Takeaways from Fireside Chat with The Presidio Group

Research evidence excerpt

US Franchise Auto Dealerships: Takeaways from Fireside Chat with The Presidio Group

Rajat Gupta AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6382 15 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

growth, with only a minority of (mostly financial) buyers explicitly haircutting forward

profitability 5-15%, as competition is too dense for that approach to clear deals — private

dealer profitability is tracking at ~1.6-1.7x vs. 2019 levels, as per Presidio, with the lift

split (vs. pre-pandemic) ~2/3 P&S and ~1/3 F&I as new/used front-end GPU normalizes

back to within ~5% of pre-pandemic levels.

• Chinese OEM entry is viewed as a credible long-term overhang, with domestic full-

size pickups the most defensible segment. Presidio’s mid-year dealer survey observed

~50% of dealers viewing Chinese OEM competition as a threat and ~40% as both a threat

and an opportunity, with concerns focused on Chinese government subsidies and an

uneven playing field. The US government is seen as intent on keeping entry at bay, though

in a future scenario granting access to the US market could involve US-based factories,

UAW employment, and IP-sharing, which would erode the Chinese cost advantage and

dampen the payoff for entering a mature US market. In such a scenario, Presidio expects

Chinese OEMs to target the full market, but views the domestic full-size pickup segment

as the most defensible, while Asia-based brands at lower price points are most exposed

as Chinese OEMs move up the price ladder.

• On CVNA and AI. Presidio believes CVNA is still in learning mode, and does not view

the used technology infrastructure and competencies underpinning the company’s

primary used retail vertical as transferring over to new car sales seamlessly, highlighting