JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Removal of geopolitical overhang puts AI back in focus

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Removal of geopolitical overhang puts AI back in focus

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

15 June 2026

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Removal of geopolitical

overhang puts AI back in focus

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Bottom Line: The Iran MOU removed the macro overhang suppressing the AI trade. With geopolitical risk premium fading

and the AI narrative re-engaged, the market's next binary comes from central bank meetings (BoJ and FOMC).

Messaging on the Middle East MOU has been fairly consistent across media outlets. The Strait is set to re-open fully and freely

for transit starting Friday (for the next 60 days) as the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports in tandem. The agreement also

purportedly includes cessation of hostilities in the region despite continued challenges in Lebanon, where Trump continues to

create situational distance. On the economic front, oil-linked sanctions against Iran will be lifted with more financial relief

granted based on the achievement of certain milestones. Details on nuclear remain somewhat unclear, but under the agreement

Iran would reaffirm its commitment to not pursue nuclear weapons while talks on the uranium stockpile continue.

What does this mean for the market? The most obvious and immediate move took place in crude as front month Brent/WTI

contracts moved sharply lower overnight. The logic is fairly straightforward: while the Strait had already ‘creaked open’ per JPM

oil strategy (with 5mbd flowing through Hormuz in June vs 2.2-3.3mbd the prior 3 months), the deal should lead to a much faster

normalization back to high-teens mbd.