US Leisure: Cruises – Smoother Sailing and Lower Fuel Costs in Wake of U.S.-Iran Deal

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US Leisure: Cruises – Smoother Sailing and Lower Fuel Costs in Wake of U.S.-Iran Deal

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15 Jun 2026 16:42:23 ET │ 23 pages

US Leisure

Cruises – Smoother Sailing and Lower Fuel Costs in Wake of U.S.-Iran

Deal

Leisure

CITI'S TAKE

James Hardiman AC

Ahead of CCL’s 2Q26 earnings results next Tuesday, June 23rd we are taking +1-212-816-4035

the opportunity to adjust our cruise estimates. We have seen significant james.hardiman@citi.com

declines in fuel costs since our last updates, most notably following today’s

announcement of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to halt the ongoing Sean Wagner

conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. +1-212-519-8834

sean.wagner@citi.com

Even before today’s decline in oil price (down ~5% on Monday), fuel prices have

fairly consistently been falling in recent weeks. For cruise ship bunker fuel prices,

the more expensive marine gasoil (MGO) is down ~13-18% since each company last

reported, while the cheaper (and more heavily used) IFO 380 is down 12-13%.

For CCL, in addition to reductions to our fuel estimates, we are also taking the

opportunity to bump our 2Q26 net yield assumption slight, which now stands at

+2.5%, which represents 50 bps of upside vs. the guide of 2.0%. To this point our

expectation has been that CCL would leave the full-year guidance unchanged

implying a reduction to back half expectations, however recent developments with

the end of the conflict may give management more confidence to flow through any

2Q beat and leave back half assumptions unchanged.

All in, our 2Q26 EPS estimate is up 3c to $0.37, while our FY26 estimate is up

$0.23 to $2.43 as the reduction in fuel expense is largely a 2H benefit. Our FY27

and FY28 estimates are up $0.20 and $0.18 to $2.85 and $3.22, respectively.