Daily Economic Briefing: Good news on Hormuz, but no panacea

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Good news on Hormuz, but no panacea

Nora Szentivanyi Global Economic Research J P M O R G A N(44-20) 7134-7544 15 June 2026

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

the staff’s baseline and “mild” scenarios and rising core inflation would still make a very

good case for delivering a second hike (as we currently have in our forecast for

September). Furthermore, we still see risks as being modestly skewed towards a third

hike being delivered.

• In EM, the pullback in oil eases pressure for pre-emptive, defensive hikes, while

improving the near-term backdrop for selected high-yield easing stories. Brazil’s

COPOM still faces an inflationary mix from import price pressures and fiscal and credit

policy easing, but we expect another 25bp cut with cautious guidance.

• On activity, we look for US retail sales to rise 0.8%m/m overall and 0.5% for control,

consistent with modest real consumption growth and a small upward revision to our 2Q

real PCE tracking (now ~2.0% from 1.75%). US IP growth softened in May (+0.1%m/m)

after a strong April, leaving 2Q tracking solidly; durables and high-tech output remain

firm, consistent with ongoing AI-related capex demand. The Empire survey cooled

sharply in June, but pricing remains elevated and employment/backlogs held up.

• Euro area industrial production rose 0.1%m/m in April after an upwardly revised 0.4%m/

m gain in March, leaving output about 1.9% (annualized) above its 1Q average. Strength

was concentrated in intermediate goods and energy-intensive sectors, consistent with

stockbuilding amid input-cost and supply concerns; overall momentum is modest, and a

more stable Hormuz outlook should help offset the energy headwind.

Manufacturing output

%3m, saar, both scales; US thru May, Euro area thru Apr.

US

Euro area -3