Telecom Services – Initial Read on iPhone 18 Promotions: Targeted Escalation, No

Research evidence excerpt

Communications | Cable, Satellite & Telecom Services

September 10, 2026

Kutgun Maral, CFA

Amir Razban

Telecom Services – Initial Read on iPhone

18 Promotions: Targeted Escalation, Not a

Broad-Based Price War

Apple announced the release of the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new

foldable phone called the iPhone Duo. Details on carrier promotions for

the 18 Pro/Pro Max remain limited and should become more widely

outlined and marketed ahead of pre-orders beginning on 9/12. Duo

offers may remain sparse for now given its later 10/16 pre-order date.

Still, Apple's website lists trade-in promotions from AT&T and T-Mobile

for the 18 Pro/Pro Max that are worth flagging. Our early read is that

headline promotional values are higher, but the more important

change is where the subsidies are being deployed. T is increasingly

differentiating device economics by rate plan, while TMUS is doing so

alongside a much stronger new-line skew; both reserve their richest

offers for higher-value plans. We therefore view the opening posture as

targeted escalation rather than a broad-based price war, pending VZ.

Apple's fall launch includes the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max

and the new iPhone Duo, its first foldable device. Pre-orders for the

18 Pro/Pro Max open 9/12 with availability on 9/18, while Duo preorders begin 10/16 with availability on 10/23. We assume entry-level

iPhone 18 models and likely a new Air could come in a separate launch

window, perhaps in Spring 2027. Therefore, the initial iPhone 18 Pro

offers are not yet a complete read on 4Q wireless competitive intensity.

With two distinct fall launch windows - and additional iPhone launches

potentially following in Spring 2027 - we think promotional activity could

remain elevated deeper into the holiday period and potentially into

1Q27.

Pricing is moving higher across the lineup. The iPhone 18 Pro starts

at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299 for 256 GB, up $100, or roughly

7-9%, versus the prior generation across the 256 GB and 512 GB

configurations, while the 1 TB and 2 TB models are 19-25% more

expensive. The Duo starts at $1,999 for 256 GB and reaches $3,199

for 2 TB, making it Apple's most expensive iPhone to date.…