Products Inventories Remain Tight Despite Weekly Build

Research evidence excerpt

Energy | Energy Commodities

September 10, 2026

Stephen Richardson

Chai Zhao, CFA

Chris Baker, CFA

Chris Lee

Relevant Research

▪ Buy Today’s Physical Tightness, Sell Tomorrow’s

Paper Surplus

▪ Crude Cushion, Cracks Climb

▪ Kick the Can, Bid the Barrel

▪ Resilience Priced, Normalization Too Soon

▪ When Unthinkable Happens. Raising Oil

Forecast, No Quick Fix.

▪ Price Don’t Lie

▪ Markets = 1, Barrel Counters = 0

▪ Once More Unto the Breach

▪ Show Me the Barrels

▪ Stay of Execution

▪ Revising Estimates (and Targets) for Persistent

Margin Strength

▪ Today vs. Tomorrow; The Cage Match

▪ Sword of Damocles

▪ Right Back Where We Started; IADs Rising.

▪ Refining Initiation - Post Cycle, Not Post

Relevance: Long Tailed Assets w/ Volatility

Capture

▪ Reality Setting In

▪ Fool’s Errand

▪ Downside Risks Predominate. Cutting Crude Oil

Price Forecast.

▪ Wall of Worry Pushes to 2026. Raising 2025

Brent Price to $80.

▪ Pendulum Swings

▪ “There's No Such Thing as Never… Anything Can

Happen.”*

▪ Path Dependency

▪ Risks Skew Positive

▪ OPECs Burden Rising

▪ Sentiment Flip Flop

▪ Spring Reset Shifting to Summer Tightness

▪ Mixed Indicators, Holding High

Products Inventories Remain Tight Despite

Weekly Build

Crude Implications: Bullish – inventory draw below expectations.

The SPR drew 1.2 MMBbl w/w. The WTI 1–12M spread widened to

~$23/bbl. Spec length increased 16% w/w and remains at ~28%

above the TTM avg.

US Crude Production: indicated at 13,947 MBPD, up 85 MBPD

w/w and 452 MBPD y/y.

Refinery Runs: Runs increased to 17,586 MBPD, up 90 MBPD w/w

and 768 MBPD y/y. Utilization remains near a seasonal peak at

97.8% (vs. 5Y avg of ~91%). Turnaround season is approaching,

though activity is expected to remain lighter than last year as

refiners defer maintenance amid elevated margins.

Gasoline: Bearish – inventory build vs. expected draw. Demand

down 4.2% w/w and up 0.5% y/y. With seasonal demand set to

soften, above-normal refinery runs and a light fall turnaround

schedule should keep gasoline cracks in check.

Distillate: Neutral – inventory build vs. expected draw. Demand up

8.5% w/w and 8.9% y/y. Distillate cracks continue to strengthen on

…