"The Situation"...Are You Ready for Some Football?

Research evidence excerpt

Financials | Regional Banks

September 10, 2026

John Pancari

Russ Anderson

Girard Sweeney

Seth Lin

"The Situation"...Are You Ready for Some

Football?

“The Situation”…our rundown of key developments in the Regional

Bank and Specialty Finance sectors. In this edition: a look at next

week’s industry conference, WaFd/EverBank reviving hopes of

larger bank M&A, Chime rings the bell on bank deals, HBAN

succession, Trump takes a swipe at cards, and more!

Kicking off conference season; funding dynamics likely a key

focus. The majority of our bank and consumer finance coverage is

scheduled to present at an industry conference next week. We expect

funding pressures to remain front and center, particularly amid

heightened competitive pressures cited by banks with recent earnings

commentary. This was further cited during 3Q as commercial

depositors appear to be demanding higher deposit rates in advance of

Fed rate hikes (see last week's Situation). Given this setup, paired with

select banks highlighting increased activity in “NIM dilutive, NII/earnings

accretive” lending, we cannot rule out the potential for more

conservative NIM commentary next week. That said, we expect most

banks to stand firm on NII forecasts at this time – in part, supported by

likely strengthening loan growth and supportive yield curve. Recall, the

bulk of the regionals remain moderately asset sensitive – and

accordingly, positioned to benefit if we do see Fed hikes take shape

(which we currently do not model). On the fee side, broader

commentary re: market sensitive businesses is likely to be relatively

constructive given solid pipelines, but sluggish summer volumes have

likely weighed on actual 3Q results. Color on credit trends should

remain generally positive as intra-quarter indicators do not point to

material commercial or consumer deterioration, despite select retailers

citing impacts of elevated energy prices and trade-down activity. Lastly,

on capital, share buyback commentary should also remain constructive.

We also expect consistent investor interest in potential bank M&A given

the amenable regulatory posture to bank combinations, but also a

…