Choice Hotels International Inc: 2Q26 1st Take: Similar to peers, beat/raise but 2H below consensus

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:29 PM GMT

Choice Hotels International Inc | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Stephen W Grambling

Equity Analyst

2Q26 1st Take: Similar to peers,

beat/raise but 2H below

consensus

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

CHH saw 2Q EBITDA +6% y/y, ahead of MS/cons with upside

largely driven by better rooms growth (+2.6% vs. our 2.3%) and

higher royalty rate (+10bps y/y vs. our ~flat). Management

raised guidance for year, including a 100bps bump in RevPAR,

but similar to peers, 2H guide is slightly below consensus.

Key Takeaways

2Q adj. EBITDA +6% yoy with adj. EPS +5% yoy on 1.3% US RevPAR and 2.6% net

rooms growth.

2Q adj. EBITDA of $175m was +3-5% above MSe/Consensus on stronger rooms

James F Koehne, CFA

Research Associate

Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH.N, CHH US)

Gaming & Lodging | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Underweight

In-Line

$86.00

$108.61

$5,292

$127.26-84.17

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

6.99

13.6

6.94

1.2

7.06

15.4

7.13

1.1

7.19

15.1

7.61

1.1

7.27

14.9

8.19

1.1

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1.35

1.92

2.11

1.59

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

1.08a

1.90

2.42

1.68

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

1.14

1.91

2.48

1.68

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

growth and royalty rate expansion, but RevPAR was slightly lower than our

estimate.

FY26 EBITDA guidance was raised to $635-650mn (vs. prior $632-647mn) on a

100bps lift in RevPAR, 3-5bps higher royalty rate, and ~1.5% rooms growth (prior

1%).

With the beat, the raised FY26 guide still pegs 2H EBITDA a touch below

consensus, echoing c-corp peers. TTM FCF conversion remains down yoy.

…