Choice Hotels International, Inc. 2Q26 Takes; Not Perfect, but Clears the Bar as Positives Outweigh Nits; Stay Neutral, PT $119 (+$1)

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Choice Hotels International, Inc.

2Q26 Takes; Not Perfect, but Clears the Bar as

Positives Outweigh Nits; Stay Neutral, PT $119 (+$1)

Neutral

CHH, CHH US

Price (04 Aug 26):$108.61

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$119.00

Prior (Dec-27):$118.00

CHH’s 2Q adj. EBITDA of $175m was in line w/ JPMe $175m (Street high) and

+3% vs. Street’s $170m. While this was by no means a perfect report, we do think

the positives nicely outweighed the negatives, and given low expectations, 26%

short interest, and CHH’s top priority of returning to positive domestic net rooms

growth in FY26, we are not surprised to see the stock outperform (+5% vs. SPX

flat).

Key positives: raised EBITDA on combo of higher NRG, RevPAR, and increased

royalty rates (kind of paradoxical given renewed focus on reducing owner costs),

reinforced confidence in growing domestic NRG (increasing conversions now

~90% of openings, declining deletions), and capital investment cycle winding

down. The nits we had were CHH’s 1.3% 2Q domestic RevPAR growth is still

lagging the index (some footprint related, some execution) and key money is going

up (now $125-130 vs. prior $110m). With Interim CEO Dom Dragisich vying for

the permanent job and domestic NRG his top priority, we pencil in domestic NRG

improving to +0.4% y/y in 3Q and +0.9% y/y in 4Q. With trends improving, our

Dec 27 PT edges higher to $119 (+$1), but we stay Neutral as we see more upside

elsewhere in our C-Corp coverage (HLT).

EPS and mgmt callback notes. (1) FY26 Adj. SG&A outlook is unchanged

from prior (+MSD y/y%), but timing of certain expenses shifted more into 1H

(higher costs re: Canada biz) and mgmt sees 2H26 SG&A growth moderating.

(2) Mgmt continues to see FCF conversion improve for FY26 y/y (FY25:

50%); (3) World Cup contributed 60 bps to 2Q US RevPAR +1.3% (~30 bps

to FY26 US RevPAR); (4) Per mgmt, FY26 US NUG should be positive y/y

and conversions represent ~90% of openings (vs. prior commentary of ~80%

of openings); (5) CHH is seeing fewer US hotels leave its system with its

termination rate -2.5% y/y in FY26; (6) US RevPAR should benefit from ~45%

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