Buzzi SpA: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:20 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Buzzi SpA | Europe

Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI, BZU IM)

What’s Changed

Building & Construction | Italy

Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI)

From

To

Price Target

€56.00

€53.00

Base Case

€56.00

€53.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI) has been updated

Reason for change

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

Equal-weight

In-Line

€53.00

€41.49

€54.75-38.48

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

5.09

4.34

4.52

4.87

4.88

5.07

5.18

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Buzzi's H1 revenue and EBITDA missed our estimates by -2%/ -7%, and management

lowered its FY26 EBITDA guidance. Most regions underperformed, but notaby Italy

and Germany.

In Italy, Buzzi says the gradual phase-out of government incentives continues to

weigh on residential construction, while public works projects are slowing down as

projects linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) gradually wind

down. In Germany, Buzzi says residential construction is under intense pressure,

though commercial and civil engineering segments have shown early signs of

stabilisation, but overall volumes are tracking below expectations.

Estimate changes: we lower FY26/27 EBITDA by -6%/-3%. Our price target moves

down from €56 to €53.

Valuation: 5.5% FY26 / 5.9% FY27 FCFY, on our new estimates. Elevated capex on

site upgrades and decarbonisation spend blunt attractive EV/EBITDA multiple. We

remain Equal-weight.

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