Buzzi Model update post H1; revising estimates down ~6%

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Buzzi

Model update post H1; revising estimates down

~6%

Overweight

BZU.MI, BZU IM

Price (05 Aug 26):€42.00

▼Price Target (Dec-27):€52.00

Prior (Dec-27):€58.00

Following Buzzi’s HY results, we update our model. As a reminder, management

revised guidance and now looks for FY recurring EBITDA to range between

€1,100m and €1,200m (vs. prior expectation of a slight contraction in recurring

EBITDA compared to 2025. As a reminder, FY2025 EBITDA was €1,237m with

recurring EBITDA of €1,234m). Management did state on the conference call

(here) that it aims to be towards the upper end of its guidance and the main driver

of getting to the top-end will be volume evolution for the year. Our revised

estimates decrease by ~2% on the revenue line and from an earnings perspective,

we cut our EBITDA estimate by ~6% and we now look for EBITDA of €1,190m

(previously: €1,263m). As we had highlighted in our first take, whilst it was a

disappointing set of results, it did not come as a complete surprise given recent

read-across and investors were already pre-positioned given the poor share price

performance ytd. Our revised Dec-27 PT is now €52 (previously: €58) as a result

of our earnings cuts.

European Building & Construction

and Infrastructure

Elodie Rall AC

(44-20) 7134-5911

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Zaim Beekawa

(44-20) 7134-4175

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Jamie Smallbone

(44-20) 3493-7015

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Manshi Sinha

(91-22) 6157 5111

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales European Industrials

(44-20) 7742-8733

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales European Energy

(44-20) 7134-1356

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS - 26E (€)

Adj. EPS - 27E (€)

Prev

5.27

5.91

Cur Δ

4.81 -8.8%

5.26 -10.9%

Style Exposure

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.