Mitratel 2Q26 earnings in-line; stay OW on potential telco capex cycle and consolidation optionality

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Mitratel

2Q26 earnings in-line; stay OW on potential telco capex

cycle and consolidation optionality

Overweight

MTEL.JK, MTEL IJ

Price (05 Aug 26):Rp446

Price Target (Jun-27):Rp790

MTEL 2Q26 results came in-line with 2Q26 revenue/EBITDA growth of 3%/1%.

Management stated that they are in discussions with MNOs on 5G roll out post the

finalization of 700MHz/2.6GHz spectrum auction. Telcos’ network modernization

should also support growth in adjacent businesses, e.g., FTTT. We forecast

MTEL’s top line & EBITDA to accelerate to 4-5% in 2027-28E. Our reverse DCF

calculation indicates that the current share px is only pricing in 0.5-1% LT growth.

We stay OW on the stock. The prospect of potential industry consolidation

provides further upside optionality for the stock, in our view.

ASEAN TMT

Sigrid Qiu

2Q26 earnings in line with our expectations.MTEL reported EBITDA of

IDR1.99tn in 2Q26, flat yoy and ahead of JPMe by ~2%. 1H26 EBITDA is up

1% yoy, making up 48% of FY26 consensus expectation. We believe this is an

in-line result as 1H EBITDA typically makes up ~48% of FY. Tenancy ratio

was sequentially stable at 1.57x, but improved by 4bps on a yoy basis. Number

of tenancies grew by 5% yoy, but the impact on tower leasing revenue was

partially offset by a 3% decline in lease rates (JPM calculation). Fiber continues

to exhibit a solid growth rate of ~7% yoy, albeit from a low base. Fiber now

contributes ~7% of MTEL’s consolidated revenue.

FY26 guidance maintained, growth opportunities from 5G and FWA.

MTEL maintained its FY26 guidance of 1.2% revenue and EBITDA growth,

in line with industry growth rates. Management expects tenancy additions to

accelerate in 2H26 (~1,700 with a backlog of 2H vs. 780 additions in 1H26),

but lease rates should stay at the current level of IDR10.4mn. Our revised FY26

forecasts are broadly in-line with mgmt. guidance. The recently concluded

700MHz/2.6GHz spectrum auction opens up new growth opportunities for the

company. MTEL is in discussion with MNOs for their 5G roll out plan. We note

that ISAT is planning an IDR10tn capex for 5G network roll out this year.

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