Shiseido: F12/26 2Q Results: Profits Maintain Strong Progress

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:50 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Shiseido (4911) | Japan

Haruka Miyake

Equity Analyst

F12/26 2Q Results: Profits

Maintain Strong Progress

Jully Ussui

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Meaningful upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

We expect a neutral share price reaction after recent gains, though Shiseido's

comment that Core OP progress versus F12/26 plan is ahead of schedule and that

Shiseido (4911.T, 4911 JT)

Cosmetics & Personal Care Products | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥2,900

¥3,269

¥1,306.1

¥9.4

it's eyeing upside is modestly positive.

2Q sales growth improved vs. 1Q, but not enough to be considered a major

Exhibit 1 : Comparison of our forecasts,

surprise. China and TR sales were stronger than we expected.

Shiseido maintained F12/26 guidance. Management cited competition in Western

markets as a risk for 2H sales and plans to make strategic marketing investments

behind new products.

Market expectations for F12/26 Core OP are likely to start climbing, though to

consensus estimates and actual

results

4911.T

2Q25A

2Q26A

2Q26e

F12/25A

just a modest degree given ongoing cost headwinds.

From a mid/long-term perspective, accelerating sales growth remains the more

F12/26e

important issue, and we feel it is still too early to adopt a more constructive

stance.

F12/27e

F12/28e

• Restructuring and productivity improvements are starting to provide benefits

for Shiseido's earnings, which is a marked change from past trends. Our view

bn yen

Actual

MSe

VAe

IFISe

Actual

MSe

CE

VAe

IFISe

MSe

VAe

IFISe

MSe

VAe

IFISe

Sales

241.6

267.0

261.3

258.3

253.7

970.0

1,028.6

990.0

1,009.8

1,003.7

1,070.3

1,043.8

1,034.8

1,107.9

1,077.9

1,067.1

BP

15.1

31.4

17.0

20.9

NA

44.5

64.6

69.0

69.3

NA

77.4

80.5

NA

85.1

89.9

NA

OP

10.9

29.6

13.0

17.6

13.0

-28.8

53.6

59.0

60.6

57.7

66.4

76.7

71.8

74.1

86.4

82.8

NP

5.8

21.3

9.2

12.2

12.4

-40.7

36.0

42.0

…