Haleon plc: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 04:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Haleon plc | Europe

Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Haleon plc (HLN.L, HLN LN)

Top Pick

What’s Changed

Haleon plc (HLN.L)

From

To

ADRHLN.N

Price Target

430p

460p

Household & Personal Care Products | United Kingdom

Bull Case

560p

600p

Base Case

430p

460p

Bear Case

330p

340p

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

52-Week Range

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (p)**

Prior EPS (p)**

Risk Reward for Haleon plc (HLN.L) has been updated

Reason for change

Overweight

In-Line

460p

366p

416-274p

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

18.8

21.3

20.9

23.7

23.3

25.6

25.2

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We update estimates to reflect H1 results, management commentary and FX. All in,

our EPS increases by 2% for FY26 and beyond. Group margin was ahead of

expectations in H1, and management has guided to a similar level in H2 26: this is the

key source of the upgrade. A higher base thus flows through into FY27, which is

expected to benefit from the overhead savings programme (of which 2/3 will fall in

FY27 vs 1/3 in FY26) as well as the ongoing gross margin expansion from supply

chain rationalisation. We continue to see Haleon as offering top decile earnings

growth in European Staples, a strong balance sheet, and superior FCF yield. There is

clearly potential to do more with the balance sheet: our estimates reflect the

current GBP500m SBB but do not assume anything further, which could imply

additional upside in subsequent years. Our price target rises to GBP460 (from

GBP430), driven by our changes to estimates, as well as a higher assumed sector

multiple following category re-rating, and our bull and bear valuations tick up in line

with this.

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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research.…