GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Haleon plc: Risk Reward Update
Research evidence excerpt
M
Update
August 5, 2026 04:49 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
Haleon plc | Europe
Sarah Simon
Equity Analyst
Risk Reward Update
Haleon plc (HLN.N, HLN US)
What’s Changed
Household & Personal Care Products | United Kingdom
Haleon plc (HLN.N)
From
To
Price Target
US$11.60
US$12.40
Bull Case
US$14.90
US$16.10
Base Case
US$11.60
US$12.40
Bear Case
US$8.90
US$9.10
Updated Components
EPS
Bull Base Bear Scenarios
Sustainability and ESG
Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)
52-Week Range
Fiscal Year Ending
EPS (p)**
Prior EPS (p)**
Overweight
In-Line
US$12.40
US$9.78
US$11.28-8.66
12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e
37.6
42.5
41.8
47.4
46.7
51.2
50.4
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Risk Reward for Haleon plc (HLN.N) has been updated
Reason for change
We update estimates to reflect H1 results, management commentary and FX. All in,
our EPS increases by 2% for FY26 and beyond. Group margin was ahead of
expectations in H1, and management has guided to a similar level in H2 26: this is the
key source of the upgrade. A higher base thus flows through into FY27, which is
expected to benefit from the overhead savings programme (of which 2/3 will fall in
FY27 vs 1/3 in FY26), as well as the ongoing gross margin expansion from supply
chain rationalisation. We continue to see Haleon as offering top decile earnings
growth in European Staples, a strong balance sheet, and superior FCF yield. There is
clearly potential to do more with the balance sheet: our estimates reflect the
current GBP500m SBB but do not assume anything further, which could imply
additional upside in subsequent years. Our price target rises to $12.40 (from $11.60),
driven by our changes to estimates, as well as a higher assumed sector multiple
following category re-rating, and our bull and bear valuations tick up in line with
this.
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