Kobe Steel: F3/27 1QResults: Underlying Profit Guidance Lowered; Focus on Implementing Price Hikes

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 09:39 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Kobe Steel (5406) | Japan

Yu Shirakawa

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1QResults: Underlying

Profit Guidance Lowered; Focus

on Implementing Price Hikes

Kobe Steel (5406.T, 5406 JT)

Steel | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Underweight

Cautious

¥1,850

¥1,972

¥779.8

¥4.5

F3/27 1Q results fall short of consensus: Kobe Steel announced 1Q results at 1pm

on Aug 5 and held a briefing the same day. RP came in at ¥22.7bn, below consensus

(¥25bn) and our forecast (¥27.5bn). Compared with our forecasts, the main shortfall

was in the materials business, as steel metal spreads deteriorated. Adjusted RP,

excluding inventory valuation gains, was -¥21bn YoY to ¥11.6bn. The YoY decline was

largely due to delays in structural price pass-through to offset cost growth in

materials business, as well as extended maintenance and inspection work at the

Kobe Power Plant Unit No. 3 in electric power business. The company put the

negative impact from the Middle East situation during 1Q at -¥5.5bn.

F3/27 headline RP guidance unchanged, but adjusted figure excluding valuation

gains revised down: Full-year guidance calls for roughly flat YoY RP growth, to

¥120bn (our forecast: ¥120bn; consensus: ¥122bn). Excluding inventory valuation

effects, Kobe Steel lowered its underlying RP guidance from ¥115.5bn to ¥99.5bn.

The estimate for the materials business was lowered to reflect spread deterioration

and higher procurement costs, while the estimate for the electric power business

was revised down due to extended maintenance and inspection work. With regard to

the situation in the Middle East, previous guidance assumed a resolution by the end

of 1H and factored in a negative impact of -¥10bn; however, revised guidance

anticipates that the situation will continue through the end of the fiscal year, and

…