Yokohama Financial Group: F3/27 1Q Results: Results as Expected but Plenty of Factors to Lift Earnings Above the Initial Plan

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 09:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Yokohama Financial Group (7186) | Japan

Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Results as

Expected but Plenty of Factors

to Lift Earnings Above the Initial

Plan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Yokohama Financial Group (7186.T, 7186 JT)

Banks | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Equal-weight

Attractive

¥2,010

¥1,855

¥2,123.3

¥5.1

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

We expect the share price to rise near term on healthy core business and

increased shareholder return.

F3/27 1Q results overview: 1Q core net profit from operations ran at a strong 27.7%

of the full-year plan. 3-bank total NII increased YoY with a run-rate of 25.7%, and

domestic fee income also ran at 28.1% despite falling as last year's large

undertakings dropped out. The firm recorded capital losses of ¥6.1bn tied to yen

bond reshuffling in preparation for higher interest rates, and sales of overseas

bonds and investment trusts, but this was covered by the initial plan (losses of

¥8.1bn). In shareholder return it announced share buybacks (up to ¥20bn) for a total

return ratio (planned basis) of 56.0%. Investment in Sumitomo Mitsui Trust

Panasonic Finance stands to have little impact on the CET1 ratio. The company plan

does not include effects of the June rate hike (~¥3bn for NP), or negative goodwill

(~¥5bn) and equity-method input from the SMTPF stake (the latter an estimated ~

¥0.7-0.8bn as a half-year contribution from a full-year ~¥10bn for NP), and though

guidance is unchanged we see considerable scope to overshoot. Credit costs (3-bank

total) of ¥2.2bn for 1Q were low in relation to the FY plan (¥10bn).

Exhibit 1:

F3/27 1Q Earnings Summary

F3/26

1Q

2Q

F3/27

3Q

(JPY bn)

Gross profits

1Q

4Q

Actual

73.3

78.9

77.8

77.2

YoY

81.1

10.8%

FY

Ach%

---

e

Con.

87.1

Ce

e

---

319.7

362.3

Con.

---

Net interest income

57.6

66.6

62.7

73.3

69.1

20.0%

---

…