ANA Holdings: Post-F3/27 1Q Results Contact: Key to Reading F3/27 2H Earnings Is Crude Prices and Top Line, But Outlook Highly Uncertain

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 07:08 AM GMT

ANA Holdings (9202) | Japan

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Post-F3/27 1Q Results Contact:

Key to Reading F3/27 2H

Earnings Is Crude Prices and

Top Line, But Outlook Highly

Uncertain

ANA Holdings (9202.T, 9202 JT)

Airlines | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥3,000

¥3,100

¥1,458.1

¥7.3

Below are the six key points from the company's comments. 1) Main factors behind

F3/27 1Q results exceeding guidance: in the international cargo business, the ¥12.0bn

sales overshoot owed mainly to a larger-than-expected increase in unit prices (owing

to tighter-than-expected market); in the international passenger business, the

¥8.5bn sales overshoot owed mainly to stronger-than-expected demand. 2) Middle

Eastern carriers appear to have largely restored services in June 2026, reestablishing

the supply framework in place before the escalation in Middle East tensions. 3) In

F3/27 1Q, operating expenses (aside from fuel costs) were largely under control. 4)

From F3/27 2Q onward, the company's strategy now places greater emphasis on

unit prices. 5) In F3/27 2Q, the upside in the international cargo business is likely to

shrink versus 1Q, but the company expects consolidated OP to land broadly in line

with initial plan. 6) Focus points in F3/27 2H are prices for Singapore kerosene

(company’s current assumption is $90/bbl, but current price is $149/bbl; a $10 gap is

estimated to have a roughly ¥10.0bn impact on earnings over a roughly six-month

period). Passenger and cargo demand, as well as unit-price trends, are other

important KPIs.

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