Vonovia: 1H26 Shows Slow Going

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:10 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Vonovia | Europe

Bart Gysens, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Shows Slow Going

Ana Escalante

Equity Analyst

Paula Bayer

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Research Associate

Unchanged

In-line

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Vonovia reported 1H26 results. We are Equal-weight as a lot is

now in the price we believe.

Key Takeaways

"Slower progression" in sales-related segments as market is "challenging"

Vonovia (VNAn.DE, VNA GY)

Property | Germany

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Equal-weight

Attractive

€30.00

€21.64

€29.26-19.53

€18,355

€38,766

€63,087

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

And slower rental growth, attributed to timing effect

But so far no change in 2026 or medium-term (2028) guidance.

1H26 key metrics. Vonovia reported an NAV (EPRA NTA) of €46.2 per share (Visible

Alpha consensus €45.8) flat (down 0.1%) for the half, which puts the shares on a

wide 53% discount. It generated €0.91 per share in recurring EPS (ahead of Visible

Alpha consensus €0.84), down -8% year on year.

Slower rental growth, no leverage improvement. Rents were reported up 3.6%

Fiscal Year Ending

NAV per shr (€)

Premium (discount) to

NAV (%)

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

DPS (€)

Div yld (%)

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

46.3

(47)

48.8

(56)

50.6

(57)

52.4

(59)

1.85

1.25

5.1

1.74

1.28

5.9

1.80

1.31

6.1

1.84

1.34

6.2

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

like for like (vs. 4.4% a year ago), of which 2.1pp from market-related increases, i.e.

not capex-driven (vs. 2.9pp a year ago); management attributed this decrease to

timing of the Berlin Mietspiegel. The portfolio valuation was marked up 1.1% in 1H26

and reported Loan to Valuation, underpinned by a 3.5% EPRA net initial yield (as at

December) stands at a still high 46% (up 60bp), and we also note interest cover

…