Vonovia SE 1H26 Conf. Call: Moving Parts… a bit of deja vu

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Vonovia SE

1H26 Conf. Call: Moving Parts… a bit of deja vu

Overweight

VNAn.DE, VNA GR

Price (04 Aug 26):€21.61

Price Target (Dec-27):€34.50

On the call, the focus was on the more transactional elements of the business –

recurring sales and development – where the environment in 1H was not conducive

to strong activity. Management added that, should current conditions persist, then

the high-end of EBT guidance might be tricky, but conversely the high-end of EBT

shareholders’ equity may be more likely, given lower tax drag. Otherwise, the focus

was on the moving parts and particularly why the rental growth outlook had

changed. Here, Vonovia flagged that it was choosing to push through less than what

was allowable this year in Berlin following the mietspiegel in May. Overall, we

would say there was an element of deja vu to the call – Vonovia is trying to get on

the front foot, but needs some support from the top-down environment. We provide

our key takeaways from the call below.

Strong operational performance in core business, disposal progress and

financial management all a feature of 1H. Rental activity was good. Sales

related activities more back-end loaded this year given 1H was a volatile

period. Rentals and Value-Add performed well, the latter boosted by the

Craftsman and Energy businesses. Recurring sales were substantially lower on

a volume basis but slightly higher on a profit basis.

Dividend impact in 2Q saw leverage metrics tick up in 1H26, but on a YoY

basis, metrics are moving lower.

Contrasting organic rent growth and the slow-down vs. 1H25,

management flagged two factors. In 1H25, the Dresden mietspiegel had

already been implemented, while the implementation of the Berlin mietspiegel

is yet to be seen – expected in 3Q26.

Value-add now contributes ~9% of group EBITDA, already within the

targeted 9-12% 2028 range.

Lower volume in recurring sales, partly impacted by phasing effects, but

we also think there's a general reticence for buyers to move on acquisitions.

July reservation activity in recurring sales was described as stronger than

seasonally normal, supporting expectations for a H2 recovery.

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