Marathon Petroleum Corp: 2Q26: Refining-Led Beat, Strong Cash Returns and Constructive Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Marathon Petroleum Corp | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Joe Laetsch, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Refining-Led Beat, Strong

Cash Returns and Constructive

Outlook

Daniel Kutz

Equity Analyst

Zackary C Warden

Research Associate

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N, MPC UN)

Refining & Marketing | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Meaningful upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

MPC delivered a ~25% EPS beat in 2Q, driven by stronger

Refining margins, with additional upside from Midstream and

Renewable Diesel. Robust cash generation supported $2.8 B of

shareholder returns, while management remained constructive

on refining fundamentals into 2027.

Key Takeaways

EPS of $17.73 exceeded consensus of $14.19 and MSe of $13.96, while adjusted

EBITDA of $8,460 MM beat consensus by 22% and MSe by 18%.

Refining adj EBITDA of $6.7 B topped cons and MSe by 19%, as margin of $36.33/

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026)

Mkt Cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Overweight

In-Line

$265.00

$307.03

$89,960

$326.72-158.09

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

ModelWare EPS ($)

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Revenue, net ($mm)

Rev hist grth, y/y (%)

EBITDA ($mm)**

EBITDA margin,

economically adjusted

(%)

Net debt ($mm)

Net debt/cap (%)

P/tang BV

Div yld (%)

10.71 32.33 26.97 11.48

15.2

9.5

11.4

26.7

9.70 37.99 27.46 21.78

132,699 167,396 158,684 139,796

(4.4)

26.1

(5.2) (11.9)

10,385 18,662 16,605 11,057

7.8

11.1

10.5

7.9

31,858 28,168 24,884 25,529

56.9

49.7

44.6

46.4

6.0

7.0

5.7

6.0

2.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

Midstream EBITDA of $1,778 MM beat consensus by 5%, while Renewable Diesel

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

EBITDA of $258 MM nearly doubled consensus and was 150% above MSe.

Quarterly EPS ($)

Mgmt highlighted >9 mbpd of global refining downtime, ~4 mbpd above

Quarter

2025

…