Marathon Petroleum 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Marathon Petroleum

Neutral

MPC, MPC US

Price (04 Aug 26):$312.61

2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$323.00

Prior (Dec-26):$300.00

JPM View. MPC shares closed up +1.82% yesterday following a sizeable EPS

beat, outperforming both the XLE (-0.46%) and the refiner peer group average

(+0.05%). The refining beat was driven by higher than expected capture and strong

throughput. MPC reported 2Q utilization of 94%, in line with the company's

guidance, with management citing its lowest level of unplanned downtime this

decade and 100% utilization on the U.S. Gulf Coast. 2Q capture came in at 112%,

supported by strict inventory discipline in a backward-dated market, crude

sourcing and optimization, the physical offset of 1Q derivative losses, incremental

jet production, and reliability in a strong crack environment. MPC highlighted

significant commercial execution in the quarter, including purchasing advantaged

SPR exchange barrels directly from the DOE, running more than double its 1Q

Venezuelan volumes, running record Canadian heavy on the Gulf Coast, and

doubling California-based crude runs at LAR following peer closures.

Going forward, MPC struck a constructive tone on refining fundamentals, citing

over 9 MMb/d of planned and unplanned global capacity offline, ~4 MMb/d above

historical norms, reflecting ongoing Persian Gulf disruptions and accelerated

Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure. On demand, MPC cited resilient

domestic and international demand across gasoline, diesel, and jet, with U.S. jet at

an all-time high in June and record distillate exports in the quarter. MPC was upbeat

on the company's ability to maintain high capture, citing sustainable planning,

commercial, and operational capabilities, including narrowed decision windows

and the use of data and digital tools to make faster, value-driven decisions across

its integrated system. The company also completed the Robinson product

flexibility project (~10 Mb/d incremental jet) and the El Paso yield improvement

project in 2Q, both targeting returns of 25%+. MPC expects to remain in an

…