Booking Holdings Inc: Strong Execution Through Volatile Macro...with AI Call Options

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 02:56 AM GMT

Booking Holdings Inc | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Brian Nowak, CFA

Equity Analyst

Strong Execution Through

Volatile Macro...with AI Call

Options

Julian Herrera

Research Associate

Kavya A Narayanan

Research Associate

Gregory Gao

Research Associate

BKNG continues to execute amid volatile macro and the

company is investing, testing and deploying AI products/features

to drive ROI. '27/'28 EPS is largely unchanged as we find BKNG

trading at a compelling ~25% discount to its LT avg P/E (AI

upside not priced). $230 PT (~12% upside), remain OW.

BKNG's Global Breadth Keeps Shining…BKNG results speak to healthy underlying

global travel demand, as 2Q gross bookings growth of 8% y/y (ex-FX) came in

~2ppts ahead of our ~6% y/y growth (ex-FX). Adj. EBITDA and Adj. EPS came in

Nikhil Javeri

Research Associate

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG.O, BKNG US)

Internet | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Overweight

Attractive

$230.00

$194.27

$159,904

$231.80-150.14

ahead of us by 1% and 6% (more buybacks), respectively. While the top-end of the

3Q room night/bookings (ex-FX) growth guides were each 1ppt below our prior

growth estimates, we note BKNG's pragmatic approach to guidance. While the

environment in the Middle East remains volatile (and indeed impacted 2Q demand),

underlying demand trends in 2Q remained resilient (global domestic travel nights

grew ~HSD%), and 3QTD demand signals are improving sequentially (July better

than June). Notably, we see BKNG's global scale driving stable to accelerating nights

growth in 3Q...even amidst a volatile macro travel backdrop...with conservatism

arguably in our 3Q:26 numbers if demand trends continue to improve/normalize

(see Exhibit 1 ). Bottom line, our '27/'28 EPS of ~$12/~$14 remains largely

unchanged, but we raise our PT slightly to $230 (~12% upside) vs. $220 prior. Our

$230 PT implies ~19X/~18X our '27/'28 EPS...-5%/-10% below the LT average P/E (exCOVID). We see BKNG remaining at compelling valuation levels, with this

compounder's shares trading ~15X (after hours) our ~$14 of '28 EPS, a ~25%

…