Booking Holdings Solid 2Q & Better than Expected 2H Outlook on Strong Execution & Underlying Travel Demand; Remain Overweight & Raising PT to $248

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Booking Holdings

Solid 2Q & Better than Expected 2H Outlook on Strong

Execution & Underlying Travel Demand; Remain

Overweight & Raising PT to $248

Overweight

BKNG, BKNG US

Price (04 Aug 26):$194.27

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$248.00

Prior (Dec-26):$208.00

BKNG’s 2Q results and outlook were better than feared as resilient

underlying travel demand and disciplined execution drove a clean beat across

the board despite continued uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict. RNs

grew +5% to 325M (vs. 2-4% guide), GBs grew +9% to $51.0B (vs. +4-6% guide),

and revenue grew +8% to $7.4B (vs. 4-6% guide). Results started to normalize in

June and July, and mgmt expects the impact from the Middle East conflict to be

smaller in 3Q than in 2Q. BKNG also highlighted that the SEO channel has come

under pressure, but it remains a very small piece of traffic, and BKNG’s B2C direct

mix has remained stable in the mid-60’s% range. Additionally, LLM-sourced

traffic (paid + unpaid) has remained significantly below 1% of RNs and has not

moved materially. BKNG also raised its transformation program run-rate savings

target to ~$650M from ~$550M, w/the $100M in incremental savings to be

realized starting in 2027, creating additional capacity for strategic investments. In

2Q, BKNG repurchased $4B of shares in 2Q & remains committed to its L-T

growth ambition of 8%+ for GBs and Revenue, & 15%+ for Adj. EPS. We increase

our ’26E & ’27E GBs/Revenue estimates by <1%, and GAAP EPS estimates

by ~2%. We remain Overweight, and are establishing a Dec-27 PT of $248, up

from our $208 Dec-26 PT, based on ~17.0x our 2028E GAAP EPS of $14.79.

Middle East Headwinds Have Started to Moderate. BKNG highlighted that

the impact from the Middle East conflict in 2Q was a bit higher than the the ~2pt

impact in 1Q (which reflected only March) as the conflict continued into April

and May before normalizing in June & July. Mgmt expects that the indirect

impacts of the conflict, elevated flight ticket prices, reduced airline capacity on

certain routes, and softer long-haul demand, will persist through 3Q. In terms

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