BP plc: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:44 AM GMT

BP plc | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Risk Reward Update

BP plc (BP.N, BP US)

What’s Changed

Energy | United Kingdom

Updated Components

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026)

52-Week Range

EPS

Sustainability and ESG

Risk Reward for BP plc (BP.N) has been updated

Fiscal Year Ending

Reason for change

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

We update our modelling forecasts to reflect 2Q26 actuals and higher refining

margin assumptions for 2H26, tracking the current commodity environment. We

Overweight

In-Line

US$41.70

US$44.26

US$48.27-31.59

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

2.92

6.27

5.52

3.68

3.75

3.48

3.65

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

further reflect on C&P forecasts the disposal of the Gelsenkirchen refinery, leading

to net downward revisions for future periods.

Resulting EPS revisions are +14% for FY26, and approx. -3% in FY27-30.

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