BP plc: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:42 AM GMT

BP plc | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Risk Reward Update

BP plc (BP.L, BP/ LN)

What’s Changed

Updated Components

EPS

Risk Reward for BP plc (BP.L) has been updated

ADRBP.N

Energy | United Kingdom

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Reason for change

Fiscal Year Ending

We update our modelling forecasts to reflect 2Q26 actuals and higher refining

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

margin assumptions for 2H26, tracking the current commodity environment. We

further reflect on C&P forecasts the disposal of the Gelsenkirchen refinery, leading

to net downward revisions for future periods.

Overweight

In-Line

519p

525p

609-397p

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.49

1.04

0.92

0.61

0.63

0.58

0.61

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Resulting EPS revisions are +14% for FY26, and approx. -3% in FY27-30.

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