Recruit Holdings: Jun Q Preview: Expect Jun Q Profits to Raise Prospect of Overshoot to Full-Year Plan; Strong Profit Growth on Higher Pricing and Better Margins

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 01:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Recruit Holdings (6098) | Japan

Tetsuro Tsusaka, CFA

Equity Analyst

Jun Q Preview: Expect Jun Q

Profits to Raise Prospect of

Overshoot to Full-Year Plan;

Strong Profit Growth on Higher

Pricing and Better Margins

Luyuan Yang, CFA

Equity Analyst

Keiji Nishimura

Research Associate

Recruit Holdings (6098.T, 6098 JT)

Internet | Japan

Earnings preview: We forecast Jun Q EBITDA growth of 37%

YoY, implying an annualized figure above ¥1trn. Higher pricing

and margins should sustain strong HR Tech growth, while

prospects of upside to full-year plan and an upgraded EPS

outlook could lift the shares.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Focus 1): EBITDA growth running ahead of full-year guidance. Jun Q EBITDA could

reach around ¥250bn (vs. full-year guidance of ¥949bn), implying an annualized

figure above ¥1trn. Our forecast: EBITDA +37% YoY.

Focus 2): HR Tech pricing. Focus is whether US revenue growth and ARPJ growth

match Mar Q figures (approx. +20% YoY, +25% YoY), backed by premium

products and improved AI-powered matching. Our forecast: US ARPJ (avg rev per job

posting), +25% YoY.

Focus 3): HR Tech profit and margin. Higher pricing could boost sales growth,

margin expansion could drive strong profit growth. Our forecasts: EBITDA +50%

YoY; margin 43% (+756bp YoY).

Overweight

In-Line

¥15,000

21

¥12,415

¥17,334.0

0.2

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

3,697.3 4,077.7 4,351.2 4,623.7

630.5 825.9 905.6 985.6

496.9 621.9 679.7 737.7

349.8 454.4 519.3 590.8

349.8 454.0 518.8 590.2

18.7

27.3

23.9

21.0

5.8

9.7

8.4

7.2

30.7

39.3

39.6

39.2

11.7

18.2

16.7

15.3

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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