Medline Inc. What to Know from MDLN’s 2Q26 Earnings and Management Follow-Up

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Medline Inc.

What to Know from MDLN’s 2Q26 Earnings and

Management Follow-Up

Overweight

MDLN, MDLN US

Price (05 Aug 26):$36.67

Managed Care and Facilities

MDLN posted 2Q results that showed strong top-line growth across the business,

although several pressure points led to downward revisions to 2H adj. EBITDA

guidance (see our summary of the print here). While we understand the negative

reaction to the reduction in guidance and appreciate management's transparency in

framing these incremental impacts, some of which unfolded intra-quarter (with the

Tracy warehouse fire a key example), we think the company has deployed its usual

playbook of absorbing impacts around tariffs/inflationary pressure to minimize

customer disruption amid a dynamic environment that may exacerbate near-term

headwinds vs. peers. We continue to believe this patient approach to pricing and

internal investments (which have been accelerated to meet faster-than-anticipated

demand growth) will serve the company well over the longer-term via market share

gains and the incremental Medline Brand conversion opportunity this enables. We

highlight key takeaways from the quarter and our follow-up with management

below:

On the updated outlook, management characterized the reduced FY26 adj

EBITDA guidance as driven by items that had deteriorated incrementally vs

expectations exiting 1Q, noting that while tariff favorability was already

expected to be offset by Middle East inflationary pressures and operational

investments, both headwinds had worsened intra-quarter. Further unexpected

headwinds were driven by the Tracy fire, accelerated quality remediation

efforts, and softness in Retail volumes. Looking to the second half of 2026, the

company expects the incremental $200M of costs to be felt 1/3rd in 3Q and

2/3rds in 4Q, lowering some of the previously implied 2H ramp, although the

company still expects sequential adj. EBITDA improvement. For 3Q, revenue

is expected to be roughly flat sequentially, driven by lower day counts. Within

Supply Chain Solutions, MDLN expects to end 2026 with an adj. EBITDA

margin in the ~4.9%-5.0% range.

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