Medline Inc. 2Q Beat Supported by IEEPA Refund Lift; FY26 Adj EBITDA Guidance Lowered on Middle East Inflationary Pressure, Though Excludes Net Tariff Impact

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Medline Inc.

2Q Beat Supported by IEEPA Refund Lift; FY26 Adj

EBITDA Guidance Lowered on Middle East Inflationary

Pressure, Though Excludes Net Tariff Impact

Overweight

MDLN, MDLN US

Price (04 Aug 26):$42.04

Managed Care and Facilities

This morning, MDLN reported 2Q adj. EBITDA of $1,060M, which came in well

ahead of $806M/$800M JPMe/consensus, inclusive of a ~$243M net IEEPA tariff

refund benefit ($332M of tariff refunds as a reduction to COGS offset by $89M

revenue headwind from accrued customer repayments), putting core performance

still ahead of Street expectations for Medline Brands, while Supply Chain

Solutions appears more in-line with expectations. At the same time, FY26 adj

EBITDA guidance was lowered by ~$200M at the midpoint to $3.3B-$3.4B with

the PR calling out higher than expected inflationary pressures from the Middle East

conflict, increased operational investments to support customer demand, quality

remediation efforts, and retail channel softness. Revenue guidance was raised by

~50bps to +9% to +10% y/y, putting the midpoint slightly ahead of JPMe/

Consensus. Importantly, the updated outlook excludes each piece of the $243M net

benefit (embedding the $89M revenue headwind while stripping out the $332M

cost reduction). Additionally, the release included updated details on the cadence

of tariff impacts through the remainder of 2026, noting an overall $350M net tariff

impact in 2026, with the expected full-year $60M incremental impact below the

$155M incremental impact through 1H26. On the 9:30am ET call we will primarily

be looking for color on how inflationary headwinds impacted 2Q and

management’s updated assumptions around fuel expenses/input costs through year

end, greater detail into the other pieces in bridging to the lowered adj EBITDA

outlook, and other commentary around tariff impacts following the net benefit

realized in 2Q. We provide a variance analysis in Figures 1 and 2 below.

Lisa C. Gill AC

(1-212) 622-6466

John Stansel, CFA

(1-212) 622-0083

Benjamin Rossi

(1-212) 622-9603

Cole Harris

(1-212) 622-9068

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Figure 1: MDLN 2Q26 Earnings Variance

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