Allwyn AG Fine-tuning estimates ahead of upcoming Q2; Dec-27 PT to €13.3 (€13.6)

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Allwyn AG

Fine-tuning estimates ahead of upcoming Q2; Dec-27

PT to €13.3 (€13.6)

Neutral

ALWr.AT, ALWN GA

Price (05 Aug 26):€13.38

▼Price Target (Dec-27):€13.30

Prior (Dec-27):€13.60

We preview Allwyn ahead of its Q2 results (due 27th August), keeping our group

estimates broadly unchanged, though with a slight recalibration across segments

(Continental Europe and UK slightly lower, PrizePicks slightly higher; segmentwise trends detailed below). For the FY, our estimates now sit ~1% below JPM's

last published (Tables 1-2) and company-compiled consensus (Table 3).

European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

Karan Puri AC

(44-20) 7742-8342

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

We separately published a PrizePicks deep dive this morning (here), describing the

business model of Daily Fantasy Sports (Pick’em), market backdrop/structure, and

potential FY 30 TAM opportunity.

Estelle Weingrod

Continental Europe – Q2 estimates down ~1%: We lower our Q2 net

revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by ~1% on the back of ~1ppt lower

organic GGR growth. This reflects tough comps (a favourable jackpot cycle

last year and a strong Euro tailwind in 2024) and a lower-than-expected 2026

World Cup contribution, with late match timings – especially in Greece

(relevant for OPAP) – driving fewer in-play bets. That said, our 3-year organic

GGR stack still comes in at +19% (vs +21% in Q1), implying only modest

normalisation. Separately, higher Austria taxes and Slovakia start-up costs will

weigh on Q2 adjusted EBITDA. As a result, we now model Q2 net revenue and

adjusted EBITDA at €713m and €292m, respectively, implying a 41% margin

(down >200bps y/y). We also lower our H2 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA

estimates by ~1% as we fine-tune for tough comps.

Avni Garg

United Kingdom – Q2 set-up remains challenging given comps and tech

stack transition: Q2 remains challenging due to (i) tough comps (a favourable

Euromillions jackpot cycle last year) and (ii) the ongoing replatforming

(transition to a new tech stack), with Allwyn indicating the drag on Q2 GGR

growth should be greater than in Q1 given the replatforming only began at endJanuary.…