Allwyn AG PrizePicks Deep Dive: Daily Fantasy Sports (Pick'em) TAM Analysis, Competitive Dynamics and Key Risks

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Allwyn AG

PrizePicks Deep Dive: Daily Fantasy Sports (Pick'em)

TAM Analysis, Competitive Dynamics and Key Risks

Allwyn’s acquisition of PrizePicks in Jan’26 gives it exposure to the fastestgrowing segment of the U.S. fantasy sports market — peer-to-peer (P2P) pick’em

DFS (a skill-based contest akin to player prop parlays). In this note, we provide an

overview of the U.S. fantasy sports industry, PrizePicks’ positioning within it, and

a detailed analysis of the pick’em TAM opportunity through FY 30. We anchor our

FY 30 TAM to the U.S. player prop parlay market as a sizing benchmark. Our base

case points to a FY 30 pick’em industry handle TAM of ~€13.1bn (+8% CAGR vs

FY 25), translating to PrizePicks total GGR of ~€1.5bn (+10% CAGR; JPMe inline; ~13% of group). Our bear and bull cases imply PrizePicks GGR of ~€1.0bn

to ~€2.2bn (+2% and +19% CAGR, respectively). In this note, we also provide the

reader with key questions for PrizePicks management.

DFS overview: The U.S. DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) market splits into

traditional salary-cap contests, led by DraftKings and FanDuel, and the newer

pick’em format, with the latter now accounting for ~80% of total DFS handle,

we estimate. Pick’em’s simpler UX, mobile-first design, and regulatory

classification as a skill-based contest have driven rapid adoption, particularly

in large non-OSB states such as California, Texas, and Florida, where it serves

as one of the few legal sports-contest products available to consumers.

PrizePicks snapshot: PrizePicks is the market leader in pick’em, with an

estimated ~50% handle share. Pick’em DFS remains its core revenue driver,

having generated ~€883m in GGR in FY 25, we estimate; this comprised house

pick’em through August 2025, before PrizePicks pivoted to Arena as its P2P

format. The company also operates Streaks, its free-to-play product, and

recently launched prediction markets with Kalshi in November 2025 and

Polymarket in January 2026, though the revenue contribution remains nascent.

Pick’em TAM analysis: We size the FY 25 pick’em handle TAM at ~€9.0bn

using the midpoint of two approaches — a top-down derivation from

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