First Read: Berli Jucker "Packaging to boost Q226E profits" (Sell) Manoonpol

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Berli Jucker "Packaging to boost Q226E profits" (Sell) Manoonpol

icing power, UBS Cons.

enabling the company to pass through higher energy costs. Management expects the 12/26E 0.93 1.07

favourable supply-demand environment to persist through the remainder of the year 12/27E 1.08 1.15

and potentially for the next 1-2 years, given high industry entry barriers and uncertainty 12/28E 1.18 1.23

over competitor capacity restarts. Aluminum can operations are also likely to be a key

growth contributor, with sales up an estimated c.30% YoY in both Thailand and Alex Manoonpol

Analyst

Vietnam. Growth is being driven by increased penetration with major customers such as

alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

Nestlé, export expansion, and an ongoing conversion trend from plastic packaging to +662-613 5770

cans.

Permada Darmono

Modern retail supply chain: margin focus at Big C, MMVN in line

permada.darmono@ubs.com

Big C Thailand remains focused on maximizing profitability with deliberate reduction in +65-6495 3137

low-margin B2B business and cigarette sales. We suspect easing promotional intensity,

Mark Sriskulpinyo

as highlighted by our UBS Evidence Lab Grocery Price Monitor, also contributed to an Associate Analyst

expected improved gross margin of 30bps YoY. Nevertheless, SSS is likely to decline low- mark.sriskulpinyo@ubs.com

single-digit. MTD trends suggest SSS still down 1-2%. Meanwhile, MM Vietnam was +662-613 5742

guided to be in line with expectations of around a Bt100m profit contribution per

quarter. The company guided for high-single-digit sales growth with mid-to-high single-

digit SSSG, alongside a 100bps improvement in gross margin driven by a better product

mix and contribution from a new hypermarket format.

Valuation: DCF-based price target Bt12.50; Sell