Thai Consumer Solid 1Q26 prints; wider 2H26 risk band

Research evidence excerpt

Thai Consumer Solid 1Q26 prints; wider 2H26 risk band

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 May 2026

Thai Consumer

Solid 1Q26 prints; wider 2H26 risk band

Thai Consumer’s 15% YTD underperformance vs. the SET presents a selective Consumer, Healthcare

ACbuying opportunity following broad-based earnings beats in 1Q26. Our view is Kae Pornpunnarath, CFA

anchored in three key drivers. First, we expect margins to have peaked in 1Q26, (66-2) 684-2679

with downside risks into 2H26 as energy/input cost pressures emerge. Second, the kae.pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

upcoming co-payment stimulus (~7% of basic consumption in 2H26e) will expand JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

the wallet but distort channel dynamics - favoring F&B while weighing on modern Jeanette Yutan

grocery retail. Third, we remain cautious on home improvement, given weak (63-2) 8878-1188

jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

property demand and persistent supply-demand imbalance. Against this backdrop, J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

we downgrade BJC from Neutral to UW (co-payment, margin squeeze, and

MMVN’s acquisition) and HMPRO from OW to Neutral (cautious HI & market

share loss). OWs: CPALL (quality at a bargain valuation), CPN (resilient business

model), MRDIYT (earnings compounders in discovery phase), and MINT (asset

monetization). Key UWs: BJC and CPAXT.

• 1Q26 came in with a bang, both on the macro front and in corporate

earnings. Food retailers, non-food retailers, and F&B players (excluding

THBEV) grew their earnings by 13%, 9%, and 22%, respectively, with more

beats (6) than misses (2). The main sources of the beat came in three key areas:

i) consistent delivery of quality (CPALL, CPN), ii) margin expansion thanks