First Read: Berli Jucker "Q126: Earnings in-line on weak sales momentum" (Sell)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Berli Jucker "Q126: Earnings in-line on weak sales momentum" (Sell)

2/27E 1.08 1.19

Q126, primarily impacted by persistently weak non-food sales, reduced cigarette sales, 12/28E 1.18 1.28

and disruptions at borders. Adjusting for the cigarette sales reduction, SSSG is estimated

at -2.2%. Performance by store format showed SSSG in hypermarkets at negative mid- Alex Manoonpol

single digits, supermarkets at positive low-single digits, and mini Big C stores at Analyst

marginally positive levels. The gross margin for Modern Retail experienced a modest alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

+662-613 5770

improvement of 12bps YoY, reaching 18.3%, driven by the reduction in cigarette sales.

Permada Darmono

Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? Analyst

permada.darmono@ubs.com

Big C SSSG in April was similar to Q126 but has since improved to flat in the first 10 days +65-6495 3137

of May with non-food sales improving QoQ driven by cooling-related categories but still

in the negative territory. Meanwhile, MMVN's SSSG in Q126 was robust at 17.8% in Mark Sriskulpinyo

Associate Analyst

local currency, with the company indicating that the deal is expected to close within

mark.sriskulpinyo@ubs.com

May. The company will host an analyst briefing on 22 May at 1:30pm BKK. +662-613 5742

Valuation: DCF-based price target of Bt12.5; Sell

BJC is trading at 15x 2026E PE in line with the Thai consumer sector average. We

anticipate increased downside risk to margins in H226 due to rising raw material cost

pressures, while modern retail top line could remain weak. We maintain Sell.

Highlights (Btm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 154,672 157,727 154,020 162,872 175,540 179,516 183,530 187,594

EBIT (UBS) 11,624 12,904 11,795 11,139 12,407 13,195 13,771 14,179