Knight-Swift: 10 Things About 2Q26: Can better fundamentals outrun the de-rate?

Research evidence excerpt

Knight-Swift: 10 Things About 2Q26: Can better fundamentals outrun the de-rate?

23 July 2026

Knight-Swift

that mini/turnback activity is “persisting, if not increasing in recent weeks,” while

rate reviews remain focused on existing business where pricing is below market

and the next scheduled bid is too far out to be sustainable.

4) This was supported by positive momentum in 2Q for TL, both in projects…

KNX noted a “good amount” of project activity that built into late June ahead of

the July 4 holiday, with additional activity expected to be implemented in July.

Management expects a similar setup into September as the market emerges from

the summer lull, supporting its expectation for a “strong peak season.”

5) …and in rate.

KNX saw revenue per mile accelerate in June as newer bids reflecting the tighter

market began to take effect, with recent bid outcomes largely delivering double-

digit pricing gains. Year-over-year rate improvement built throughout the quarter,

with June revenue per loaded mile ex-fuel up 8.4%, ahead of the 5.5% increase

for the quarter overall. We expect 3Q revenue per mile ex-fuel to improve ~10%

y/y, with the step-up from 2Q primarily reflecting the flow-through of low-double-

digit contract pricing gains on the roughly 55% of TL business that is contracted

(and non-Dedicated).

6) Meanwhile, signs of improving demand are “starting to emerge.”

While demand for KNX’s service offering is outpacing the broader market — as

evidenced by its tender rejection rates running roughly twice public market

indicators in 2Q — the company is also sensing healthier customer outlooks, with

management noting that customers “have solid outlooks for their respective

businesses in the near term, and discussions about peak season demand support