VAT Group: Record orders, now look for execution

Research evidence excerpt

VAT Group: Record orders, now look for execution

Barclays | VAT Group

While keeping FY26 guidance (higher orders/sales/EBITDA YoY) unchanged, the FY27 sales

guidance (CHF1.5-1.7bn) is under review, given the substantial WFE growth (assumption of 2027

WFE of US$125bn previously, vs current BARC estimate of US$209.5bn). We currently forecast

CHF1.87bn (c.10% above BBG consensus). Meanwhile, manufacturing capacity ramp-up is key

to delivery of growth; this is on track so far, and management is expecting the c20-30%

QoQ factory output increase to continue for a few quarters. Staffing is not an issue, but VAT

need its suppliers to scale up too. VAT is guiding to 3Q revenue of CHF355-385m (vs

CHF367/364m by BARC / BBG consensus, +27% QoQ at the mid-point) and a quarterly factory

run rate of CHF450m by year-end (BARC/BBG consensus 4Q26 revenue at CHF426/422m),

+c.21% vs 3Q revenue at the mid-point. Even if we assume no further manufacturing capacity

ramp in 2027, the CHF450m run rate would still imply FY revenue of CHF1.8bn in FY27, plus

some additional delivery from non-factory output.

Operating leverage will kick in. 1H26 EBITDA margin was down c.60ppt YoY given the reduced

revenue scale, as well as the ramp-up costs required for upcoming growth. We believe the

substantial revenue growth since 3Q26 will bring meaningful operating leverage, and

management thinks 2H EBITDA margin could be in the upper half of the margin target

band (33.5-37%). We forecast EBITDA margins of 33.8%/31.9% in 2H/FY26, with continued

expansion in FY27 to reach 35.6%.

Acquisition to enhance adjacencies capability. VAT announced the acquisition of 100%

of Atonarp, which offers sensing and analytical tools for semi metrology for process control.