VAT Group: Yet to the mountain top

Research evidence excerpt

VAT Group: Yet to the mountain top

eir

WFE forecasts for 2026-27 (see here), now estimating US$210bn in 2027, or a c.37% cagr in

2025-27, especially on memory (DRAM) in 2026, and basically from all devices in 2027. Besides, Price Performance Exchange-SWX

we expect vacuum products demand to outgrow overall WFE given the rising vacuum intensity 52 Week range CHF 706.80-257.50

with device mix (more advanced logic / memory) / technology improvement increasing

architecture complexity (see Atlas Copco / VAT Group: Clear winners amid rising semi vacuum

intensity).

If we use the same framework as in our last note to derive vacuum product demand based on

WFE growth, a multiplier on advanced logic/DRAM/NAND over mature logic, as well as further

vacuum intensity increase in advanced logic per annum, we derive a vacuum product demand Source: IDC

cagr of 50.7% from 2025-27, or 1.4x of WFE growth. Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

Note that the company's previous 2027 revenue target of CHF1.5-1.7bn was based on WFE of

European Capital GoodsUS$125bn. If the >US$200bn WFE materializes in 2027, it will be very likely the company raises

Timothy Lee, CFA

its targets at some point (we are currently at CHF1.81bn vs BBG consensus of CHF1.64bn),

+44 (0)20 7773 6879

although it depends on the progress of capacity ramp (we forecast revenue of CHF286m in 2Q or timothy.lee@barclays.com

c.29% QoQ growth, close to top end of their quarterly ramp target of c.20-30%, vs their revenue Barclays, UK

guidance of CHF265-295m), as well as the shipment progress of its tool customers.

Vlad Sergievskii

+44 (0)20 7116 1117

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies vlad.sergievskii@barclays.com

covered in its research reports.