VAT Group (AO) | Buy | Even further acceleration in Q2

Research evidence excerpt

VAT Group (AO) | Buy | Even further acceleration in Q2

Marketing event feedback

Release date: 22 July 2026

Craig Abbott

Head of German Small & Mid Caps

+49 69 7569 6256

cabbott@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyVAT Group

Switzerland | IT Hardware & Semis Beta Profile: MCap: CHF21.0bn

Target Price: CHF620.00 Bloomberg: VACN SW Reuters: VACN.S

Current Price: CHF700.40 Free float 90%

Up/downside: -11.5% Avg. daily volume (CHFm) 83.7

YTD abs performance 81.5% Market data: 21 July 2026

52-week high/low (CHF) 709.40/257.70

Even further acceleration in Q2

Key points:

Q2 orders were CHF500m (+101% YOY, +40% QOQ) for a 1.7x book-to-bill, 32% above consensus average. The vaguely worded FY

2026 guidance was confirmed, but, notably, quarterly factory output is expected to be above a CHF450m run-rate by year-end

(consensus 2026 sales forecasts implied c. CHF400m). The mid-point of the Q3 sales guidance range implies 27% sequential

growth (+60% YOY) and is 4% above consensus.

H1 EBITDA of CHF148m (29% margin) was, however, a touch below KECH/consensus due to the further acceleration in the

production capacity ramp (700 new hires). Without being specific, VAT expects operating leverage to "fully materialise" in H2.

Depending on the extent to which consensus FY top-line estimates for 2026 might potentially be raised, FY consensus EBITDA

estimates, which currently imply a H2 margin of at least 36%, at first glance appear unlikely to be increased materially.

The focus, anyhow, is shifting to 2027. VAT's sales guidance range of CHF1.5bn to 1.7bn provided at last year's CMD is now "under

review" (i.e., for probable increase) as WFE estimates have risen substantially, while FX assumptions have only changed

marginally (consensus 2027 sales estimates are anyhow already at the upper end of the range).