SAAB AB: Q2 beat drives 10% EPS upgrades. Reiterate Neutral on valuation

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SAAB AB: Q2 beat drives 10% EPS upgrades. Reiterate Neutral on valuation

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SAAB AB

Q2 beat drives 10% EPS upgrades.

Reiterate Neutral on valuation

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 615.00 SEK | Price: 567.00 SEK

Q2 beat drives upgrades. Reiterate Neutral on valuation 20 July 2026

Saab delivered a strong Q2'26, beating consensus across all major line items, with Equity

orders, sales, EBIT and EPS ahead by 15%, 8%, 19% and 19% respectively. Margins

exceeded expectations by 110bps despite a SEK200m write-down in Naval. Reflecting

Key Changesstronger execution and broad-based margin momentum, we raise our 2026/27

revenue/EPS forecasts by 5%/10% and increase our PO to SEK615 (from SEK586). Q2 (SEK) Previous Current

reinforces Saab’s leading growth profile within European defence, supported by a Price Obj. 586.00 615.00

broadening set of platform drivers across Gripen, GlobalEye and Giraffe 1X. However, 2026E Rev (m) 95,010.8 99,968.3

with the shares trading on c.19x 2027E EV/EBIT, we believe much of this growth is 2027E Rev (m) 117,621.6 123,754.6

already reflected in valuation. Reiterate Neutral. 2028E Rev (m) 143,078.6 147,869.0

2026E EPS 13.92 15.42

2027E EPS 18.48 20.25GlobalEye, Gripen and Giraffe 1X durable growth drivers

Management commentary was constructive across Saab’s key growth platforms. 2028E EPS 23.68 25.28

Following incremental GlobalEye awards from Canada and NATO customers, 2026E DPS 2.86 3.16

management highlighted scope to increase production towards six aircraft per year,

above the previously discussed four. Gripen commentary was also incrementally positive, Benjamin Heelan >>

Research Analyst

with management now referring to an ambition of 25-30 aircraft annually, implying Merrill Lynch (DIFC)