Saab AB: Tougher comps slow top-line growth; order momentum better sequentially

Research evidence excerpt

Saab AB: Tougher comps slow top-line growth; order momentum better sequentially

Equity Research

European Aerospace & Defence

22 June 2026

Saab AB

Tougher comps slow top-line

growth; order momentum better Earnings Preview

SAABb.ST/SAABB SS UNDERWEIGHTsequentially

Unchanged

2Q order momentum improved, with 8 announced orders European Aerospace & NEUTRAL Defence

Unchangedtotalling at least SEK 12.5bn (vs 1 in 1Q). Upside risk relies on

jumbo orders (Gripen, GlobalEye), which are dependent on Price Target SEK 545.00 Unchanged

political negotiations and flawless execution. FY26/27 Price (18-Jun-26) SEK 503.40

Potential Upside/Downside +8.3%estimates +1%/2% (mostly FX); consensus already a touch

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

above guide.

Market Cap (SEK mn) 273539

Saab reports 2Q earnings on the 17th of July. We forecast SEK 23,025m revenue for the Group Shares Outstanding (mn) 543.38

in 2Q, +16.4% y/y reported and +17.8% organically (a slow down vs 1Q26: 21.4% / +23.6% on Free Float (%) 59.52

tougher comps, specifically within Dynamics). We model SEK 2,347m EBIT (1% below cons.), 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.2

with a margin acceleration in Aeronautics (+130bps to 6.9%) partly offsetting a normalisation in Dividend Yield (%) 0.48

Dynamics (-120bps y/y to 19.7%). We also see negative operating free cash flow this quarter (- Return on Equity TTM (%) 15.65

SEK 581m), in line with Saab's usual WC profile. On a MT basis, we lift our FY26/27 EPS estimates Current BVPS (SEK) 82.96

by +1/2% (mostly on FX) and continue to forecast 59% average cash flow conversion (vs ~60% Source: Bloomberg

ambition).

Price Performance Exchange-Nasdaq

2Q orders better than 1Q, jumbo contracts await for 2H26 or 2027 and are dependent on 52 Week range SEK 748.80-445.10

political negotiations.