Saab (AO) | Reduce | Getting there (Q2 preview)

Research evidence excerpt

Saab (AO) | Reduce | Getting there (Q2 preview)

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 23 June 2026

Aymeric Poulain

Head of Aerospace & Defence

+41 43 333 6624

apoulain@keplercheuvreux.com

ReduceSaab

Sweden | Aerospace & defence Beta Profile: MCap: SEK271.6bn

Target Price: SEK490.00 Bloomberg: SAABB SS Reuters: SAABb.ST

Current Price: SEK502.90 Free float 57%

Up/downside: -2.6% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 1,394.3

YTD abs performance -6.5% Market data: 22 June 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 729.80/453.25

Getting there (Q2 preview)

Key points:

Saab has arguably the best portfolio in European defence with an overexposure to some of the fastest growing geographies

(Nordics, Poland and Germany) and a broad-based mix of short and long duration categories. The group continues to deliver on

its promises of delivering a 22% organic revenue CAGR to 2027E, having reported 21% top line growth in Q1 (of which 24% was

organic). Margins are also rising gradually on the back of scale benefits and favourable mix, pointing to at least 50bp annual

margin gains from the 10% achieved last year to 12%+ by 2029E.

Q2 results will probably match the performance seen in Q1, with a series of large order intakes set to confirm the current appetite

for Saab's products and the growing share of jumbo deals, including a few larger ones expected to be signed in the course of the

year. The main complexity in Q2 is the new divisional proforma base caused by the transfer of Surveillance activities into the

newly rebranded Naval Division. We have already commented on the pending Ukraine Gripen deal, conditional on the firm

purchase of 20 Gripen E by Ukraine. This was followed soon after by Brazil's announced ambition to extend its own Gripen order

by 20 units.