Saudi Aramco: Model update - 2Q26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi Aramco: Model update - 2Q26 preview

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

21 July 2026

Saudi Aramco

Model update - 2Q26 preview

Despite a sharp decline in volumes, we expect Saudi Aramco

to deliver another resilient quarter. We forecast 2Q26

adjusted net income before minority interests of $31.5bn, 2222.SE/ARAMCO AB OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

supported by higher crude prices and stronger product European Integrated Energy POSITIVE

margins. Unchanged

Price Target SAR 31.00

Unchanged

We are updating our forecasts ahead of Saudi Aramco’s second-quarter 2026 results, scheduled

Price (20-Jul-26) SAR 26.80for 4 August.

Potential Upside/Downside +15.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchProduction was clearly affected by disruptions during the quarter, which we expect to result in

lower total liquids volumes in 2Q26 versus both q/q and y/y. Conversely, crude prices have risen

sharply since the onset of the conflict. We forecast liquids production of c.7mboe/d, with Market Cap (SAR mn) 6485600

Benchmark Brent averaging $97/bbl during the quarter. We expect realised prices to command a Shares Outstanding (mn) 242000.00

premium to benchmarks, reflecting pronounced dislocations in physical markets and delivery Free Float (%) 2.51

conditions - particularly in April and May. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 12.2

Dividend Yield (%) 4.89

Shipping traffic declined significantly during the second quarter, with a large number of tankers Return on Equity TTM (%) 24.79

idling inside the Strait of Hormuz. This contributed to visible tightness, particularly in refined Current BVPS (SAR) 6.33

products. In our view, this should support downstream earnings, with an improved q/q Source: Bloomberg

contribution driven by stronger refining and chemicals margins, more than offsetting the impact