Saudi ARAMCO Hold: Resilience under strain

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi ARAMCO Hold: Resilience under strain

tive. The East-West pipeline ramped to 32.00

its 7mbd capacity within eight days in March, and Yanbu has crude export capacity of 27.00

c5mbd with potential debottlenecking options. Maximum sustainable capacity of 12mbd

remains intact despite attacks, with rapid restoration at impacted assets. The emphasis 05/25 11/25 05/2622.00

on supply chain localisation (70% local content) underpins the company’s ability to restore Target price: 30.80 High: 27.78 Low: 23.13 Current: 27.64

operations quickly and reduce external lead times. Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

Aramco remains a net beneficiary of higher prices. Above USD70/b Brent, a

Kim Fustier*

USD10/b move equates to cUSD9.5bn of incremental cashflow at a 45% marginal royalty Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

rate; above USD100/b, the same move falls to cUSD3.5bn at an 80% marginal rate. We HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

also assume a 5% premium to Brent in 2Q, reflecting elevated OSPs to Asia. We expect +44 20 3359 2136

no performance-linked dividend (PLD) to be paid in 2026 (given the absence of excess Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

free cash flow in 2025), but see scope for PLDs to resume in 2027 at cUSD7-8bn, Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

boosting Aramco’s 2027e dividend yield to 5.5%. ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

+44 20 7992 3302

We maintain a Hold and raise our target price to SAR30.80 (from SAR29.20), Sriharsha Pappu*

reflecting higher Brent assumptions of USD95/b in 2026 and USD75/b thereafter. We Global Head of Energy & Materials

raise our 2026 net income estimate by 9% and cashflow estimate by 13%, while 2027 sriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com

earnings/CFFO estimates rise by 3%. Our valuation uses a 50/50 blend of DCF +44 20 7991 9243