SAUDI ARAMCO (=) : Saudi Aramco points to a loss of 100mn barrels of oil per week

Research evidence excerpt

SAUDI ARAMCO (=) : Saudi Aramco points to a loss of 100mn barrels of oil per week

EQUITIES

OIL & GAS

SAUDI ARAMCO NEUTRALPRICE* SAR27.4  TARGET PRICE SAR26.5 (DOWNSIDE 3%)

FLASH NOTE

Saudi Aramco points to a loss of 100mn barrels of oil per week

11 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 16:43* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Eva Xenios BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8602 eva.x.xenios@uk.bnpparibas.com

Saudi Aramco just held its 1Q26 results call and commented on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on the global oil

market, noting a loss of roughly 100 million barrels of oil each week the waterway remains shut from hereon.

Nearly 1bn of oil supply lost since the start of the conflict, with inventory draws accelerating.

Aramco estimates that 880mn barrels of oil supply have been wiped out since the conflict began, even after offsetting releases

from strategic petroleum reserves, the East-West pipeline and other routes. The company has surged crude throughput on the

East-West pipeline to 7mn bpd, yet export capacity at Yanbu on the Red Sea is capped at c. 5mn bpd, creating a bottleneck.

Aramco’s CEO warned that every additional week of closure removes another 100mn barrels from the market, forcing a sharp

drawdown of on-shore stocks – particularly diesel and jet fuel. Interestingly, management added that third-party oil inventory

figures overstate what is truly available given much of it is locked in pipelines, minimum tank levels and other operational

constraints.

Production can be ramped up quickly, but export logistics will lag.

Aramco says it can reach a sustainable 12 mbpd capacity within three weeks and can restart shut fields within days. Export-side

constraints, however, are more stubborn.