Critical Minerals Chronicle

Research evidence excerpt

Critical Minerals Chronicle

Macquarie Equity Research

17 July 2026

Metals & Mining

AustraliaCritical Minerals Chronicle

Lithium - are we there yet?

Austin Rob

Key Points Yun, CFA Stein

• Lithium price has corrected, but equities have sold off more sharply,

reflecting weaker sentiment and expectations for near-term earnings

Adam Gabriel

downgrades. Baker Harlan

• Tight 2HCY26 Li fundamentals could support futures market, but

equity markets are increasingly focused on CY27 market balances. Key recommendations

• IGO remains our preferred exposure, offering attractive FCF yields Outperform

across lithium price scenarios without major project commitment. IGO (IGO)

PLS (PLS)

• Li names corrected: Since June, lithium prices have corrected ~15% PMET (PMT)

for major indices, with spot spodumene (Asian Metals, SC6%) down to Elevra Lithium (ELV)

~US$2,200/t from CY26 peak of US$2,890/t in May. We believe near- Liontown Resources (LTR)

term weakness is attributable to the Jianxiawo restart in early July. On Wildcat (WC8)

our forecasts, lithium producers have a NPV sensitivity of 1.5-2.0x. As

Global Lithium (GL1) such, we view the recent share price weakness (LTR down ~45%, PLS,

IGO ELV down ~30%) as disproportionate to underlying fundamentals Neutral

and potentially driven by sentiment and near-term earnings momentum Atlantic Lithium (A11)

downgrades.

• Jianxiawo ramp-up uncertainties: With limited visibility on Jianxiawo

ramp-up plan, mkt estimates for incremental lithium carbonate supply

in CY26 range from 18-40kt depending on ramp-up assumptions. We

highlight that 2 of the 3 refineries were fully shut during the 11-month

mine suspension, making recommissioning & workforce recruitment a key

near-term focus. There are also concerns that the accelerated restart