Critical Minerals Chronicle

Research evidence excerpt

Critical Minerals Chronicle

Macquarie Equity Research

14 May 2026

Metals & Mining

AustraliaCritical Minerals Chronicle

Lithium - FOMO Meets Psychological Resistance

Austin Rob

Key Points Yun, CFA Stein

• We see ~Rmb200k/t (US$29,500/t LCE) as a potential inflection point

where investor FOMO begins to encounter a psychological resistance

Adam Gabriel

level. Baker Harlan

• While near-term lithium prices may spike on supply disruptions, we

note early signs of downstream margin compression. Key recommendations

• Implied spodumene price screens highest at LTR (US$1,500/t), followed Outperform

by PLS (US$1,400/t), IGO (US$1,300/t); ELV at US$1,150/t given prod IGO (IGO)

ramp-up.

PLS (PLS)

PMET (PMT)

• Li market getting warmer: Lithium prices continued to trend higher, Global Lithium (GL1)

with spot spodumene (SC6%, Asian Metal) trading above US$2,800/t Neutral

and China lithium carbonate at ~US$28,000/t. We see ~Rmb200k/t (US Elevra Lithium (ELV)

$29,500/t LCE) as a potential inflection point where investor FOMO

Liontown Resources (LTR)

begins to encounter a psychological resistance level. Market sentiment

has continued to improve; however, we caution that positioning has Atlantic Lithium (A11)

become increasingly constructive, with many investors anticipating

a near-term price spike linked to potential Zimbabwe export

disruptions, which may materialise with a lag of ~1.5 months due to

shipment timing.

• Early signs of downstream margin compression: Lithium carbonate

price volatility remains a key sensitivity for downstream demand.

Our recent channel checks suggest ~Rmb200k/t (US$29,500/t LCE)

represents a threshold at which ESS project economics in Southeast

Asia and domestic China begin to face pressure, while Rmb250–