Retail Reflections: Can't Beat the Heat; Slowing Trends Sets Up Difficult 2H Outlooks

Research evidence excerpt

Retail Reflections: Can't Beat the Heat; Slowing Trends Sets Up Difficult 2H Outlooks

Equity Research

Industry Update — July 15, 2026

Retailing, Specialty Softlines, and E-commerce

Retail Reflections: Can't Beat the Heat; Slowing

Trends Sets Up Difficult 2H Outlooks

Previewing CPRI and TPR

Our Call Ike Boruchow

Demand is clearly moderating over the last few weeks (with Qs on both Europe and US Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Ike.Boruchow@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8024

growing) -and heading into 2Q EPS, estimate risk seems to be growing. July is a critical

Paul Kearneymonth, and QTD commentary/3Q guidance will be key as we head into B2S.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Paul.D.Kearney@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-4837

Trends Choppy, but Holding. Following a soft start to the month, June trends improved Juliana Duque

in the mid-to-back half - largely driven by a strong Week 3 (due to a combo of a holiday Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

weekend, Father's Day shift and rising promos). That said, traffic and spending trends Juliana.Duque@wellsfargo.com | 305-329-6767

decelerated over the last few weeks (~90% of companies), with traffic growth stabilizing Robert Bischoff

to +LSD while spending fell to -MSD exit rate. Looking ahead we see a difficult setup in Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

2H on tougher comps, macro pressure and Iran uncertainty. Robert.Bischoff@wellsfargo.com | 305-329-6777

CPRI - Cautious Into 1Q. We preview 1Q EPS (Link), lowering 2Q/2H numbers below

Street (and PT to $16). With aspirations to accelerate top-line into 2Q, we see a choppier

EU macro and lofty NT US outlet goals as risks. Building pressure points might make the